讲座题目：AI's Double-Edged Sword: Investment, Data, and the Risk of Default

主讲人：肖亚军

时间：2025年9月23日（星期二）下午14:30-16:30

线下地点：创新港涵英楼经济金融研究院8121报告厅

报告人简介：

肖亚军，西交利物浦国际商学院副教授，主要研究方向为资产定价与市场摩擦、企业融资与信用风险，以及宏观经济与银行业之间的相互作用。法兰克福歌德大学金融学博士，曾任都柏林国立大学商学院金融系讲师、悉尼科技大学商学院金融系讲师，以及弗莱堡大学经济学院讲师。在Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis、Review of Finance、Journal of Money, Credit and Banking、Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control等主流学术期刊发表多篇高水平论文。参与多项国家级和省部级项目。

摘要：

This paper examines how AI investment and data assets affect corporate credit risk. Using Chinese listed firms, we construct four complementary measures of AI investment, asset-based, labor-based, LLM-based, and text-based, and link them to firms' distance-to-default. We find that benchmark-level AI investment reduces default risk, while excessive firm-specific investment increases it by eroding profitability and reflecting risk-taking and competitive pressure. The dominance of this adverse effect yields a negative overall relation between AI investment and credit risk. Cash flow risk is the transmission channel: benchmark-level AI improves cash flow quality, whereas excessive investment worsens it. High-quality data assets complement benchmark-level AI by stabilizing cash flow, but this benefit fades once investment becomes excessive. Overall, the impact of AI on credit risk depends on both investment intensity and data quality, operating primarily through cash flow dynamics.